Kubrat 1–0 Hitrino: Result & Stats

Kubrat

FT

1 – 0

Hitrino

12/1/2019

Third League - Northeast · North-East - 15Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Kubrat32%

×Draw26%

Hitrino42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KubratExpected goals in this matchHitrino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.45

Kubrat

1.23

Hitrino

1.45

Hitrino creates 18% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 24 away

0.74

creates per match

0.75

2.14

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Kubrat

0.74

Hitrino

0.75

allows per match

Kubrat

2.14

Hitrino

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kubrat+0.00on par

Hitrino+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kubrat ↓

Hitrino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Kubrat or draw

58%

Kubrat or Hitrino

74%

Draw or Hitrino

68%

Winning margin

Kubrat wins by 2+

13%

Hitrino wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Kubrat 1+ goals

71%

Kubrat 2+ goals

35%

Kubrat 3+ goals

13%

Hitrino 1+ goals

77%

Hitrino 2+ goals

42%

Hitrino 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Kubrat (draw refunded)

43%

Hitrino (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kubrat at home — creates 0.74, concedes 2.14 · 50 matches

Hitrino away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.71 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kubrat attack 0.74 + Hitrino defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.23

Hitrino attack 0.75 + Kubrat defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kubrat scores more

32%

level

26%

Hitrino scores more

42%

Hitrino at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hitrino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff