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Hitrino vs Kubrat — Third League - Northeast 2018

Hitrino
Hitrino
FT
3 – 1
Kubrat
Kubrat
8/17/2019Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 2Stadion Hitrino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Hitrino73%
×Draw15%
Kubrat12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hitrino
2.75
Kubrat
1.02

Hitrino creates 170% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 46 away

creates per match

Hitrino
1.96
Kubrat
0.74

allows per match

Hitrino
1.30
Kubrat
3.54

finishing

Hitrino+0.00on par
Kubrat+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hitrino ↓

Kubrat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Hitrino or draw
88%
Hitrino or Kubrat
85%
Draw or Kubrat
27%

Winning margin

Hitrino wins by 2+
52%
Kubrat wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Hitrino 1+ goals
93%
Hitrino 2+ goals
75%
Hitrino 3+ goals
51%
Kubrat 1+ goals
64%
Kubrat 2+ goals
27%
Kubrat 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Hitrino (draw refunded)
86%
Kubrat (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hitrino at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.30 · 23 matches

Kubrat away — creates 0.74, concedes 3.54 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hitrino attack 1.96 + Kubrat defence 3.54 → ÷2 → 2.75

Kubrat attack 0.74 + Hitrino defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Hitrino scores more
73%
level
15%
Kubrat scores more
12%

Hitrino at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Hitrino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hitrino vs Kubrat

Hitrino beat Kubrat 3-1 in Third League - Northeast on August 17, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Hitrino in Hitrino.