Kubrat 0–4 Dobrudzha: Result & Stats

Kubrat

FT

0 – 4

Dobrudzha

9/15/2019

Third League - Northeast · North-East - 5Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Kubrat8%

×Draw14%

Dobrudzha78%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KubratExpected goals in this matchDobrudzha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.74

2.70

Kubrat

0.74

Dobrudzha

2.70

Dobrudzha creates 265% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 8 away

0.74

creates per match

3.25

2.14

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Kubrat

0.74

Dobrudzha

3.25

allows per match

Kubrat

2.14

Dobrudzha

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kubrat+0.00on par

Dobrudzha+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kubrat ↓

Dobrudzha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–19%

0–212%

0–311%

0–47%

1

1–02%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–01%

2–12%

2–23%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Kubrat or draw

22%

Kubrat or Dobrudzha

86%

Draw or Dobrudzha

92%

Winning margin

Kubrat wins by 2+

2%

Dobrudzha wins by 2+

57%

Team goals

Kubrat 1+ goals

52%

Kubrat 2+ goals

17%

Kubrat 3+ goals

4%

Dobrudzha 1+ goals

93%

Dobrudzha 2+ goals

75%

Dobrudzha 3+ goals

50%

Draw no bet

Kubrat (draw refunded)

9%

Dobrudzha (draw refunded)

91%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kubrat at home — creates 0.74, concedes 2.14 · 50 matches

Dobrudzha away — creates 3.25, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kubrat attack 0.74 + Dobrudzha defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.74

Dobrudzha attack 3.25 + Kubrat defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Kubrat scores more

8%

level

14%

Dobrudzha scores more

78%

Dobrudzha at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Dobrudzha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff