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Dobrudzha vs Kubrat — Third League - Northeast 2018

Dobrudzha
Dobrudzha
CANC
00:00
Kubrat
Kubrat
3/7/2020Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 18Stadion Druzhba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Dobrudzha91%
×Draw7%
Kubrat2%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dobrudzha
3.55
Kubrat
0.44

Dobrudzha creates 707% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 46 away

creates per match

Dobrudzha
3.57
Kubrat
0.74

allows per match

Dobrudzha
0.14
Kubrat
3.54

finishing

Dobrudzha+0.00on par
Kubrat+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dobrudzha ↓

Kubrat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–13%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–015%
3–17%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–013%
4–16%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (15%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Dobrudzha or draw
98%
Dobrudzha or Kubrat
93%
Draw or Kubrat
9%

Winning margin

Dobrudzha wins by 2+
77%
Kubrat wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Dobrudzha 1+ goals
97%
Dobrudzha 2+ goals
86%
Dobrudzha 3+ goals
67%
Kubrat 1+ goals
36%
Kubrat 2+ goals
7%
Kubrat 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Dobrudzha (draw refunded)
98%
Kubrat (draw refunded)
2%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dobrudzha at home — creates 3.57, concedes 0.14 · 7 matches

Kubrat away — creates 0.74, concedes 3.54 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dobrudzha attack 3.57 + Kubrat defence 3.54 → ÷2 → 3.55

Kubrat attack 0.74 + Dobrudzha defence 0.14 → ÷2 → 0.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 91%?"

Dobrudzha scores more
91%
level
7%
Kubrat scores more
2%

Dobrudzha at 91% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 91% does not mean "Dobrudzha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dobrudzha face Kubrat (Third League - Northeast)

Third League - Northeast returns with Dobrudzha hosting Kubrat. Match starts March 7, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Dobrudzha host Kubrat at Stadion Druzhba.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.