Kubrat 0–3 Benkovski Isperih: Result & Stats

Kubrat

FT

0 – 3

Benkovski Isperih

8/13/2023

Third League - Northeast · Northeast - 1Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Kubrat27%

×Draw23%

Benkovski Isperih50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KubratExpected goals in this matchBenkovski Isperih

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.83

Kubrat

1.27

Benkovski Isperih

1.83

Benkovski Isperih creates 44% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 41 away

0.74

creates per match

1.51

2.14

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Kubrat

0.74

Benkovski Isperih

1.51

allows per match

Kubrat

2.14

Benkovski Isperih

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kubrat+0.00on par

Benkovski Isperih+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kubrat ↓

Benkovski Isperih →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Kubrat or draw

50%

Kubrat or Benkovski Isperih

77%

Draw or Benkovski Isperih

73%

Winning margin

Kubrat wins by 2+

11%

Benkovski Isperih wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Kubrat 1+ goals

72%

Kubrat 2+ goals

36%

Kubrat 3+ goals

14%

Benkovski Isperih 1+ goals

84%

Benkovski Isperih 2+ goals

54%

Benkovski Isperih 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Kubrat (draw refunded)

35%

Benkovski Isperih (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kubrat at home — creates 0.74, concedes 2.14 · 50 matches

Benkovski Isperih away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.80 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kubrat attack 0.74 + Benkovski Isperih defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.27

Benkovski Isperih attack 1.51 + Kubrat defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Kubrat scores more

27%

level

23%

Benkovski Isperih scores more

50%

Benkovski Isperih at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Benkovski Isperih will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff