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Benkovski Isperih vs Kubrat — Third League - Northeast 2018

Benkovski Isperih
Benkovski Isperih
FT
7 – 2
Kubrat
Kubrat
8/17/2024Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 1Stadion Branichevo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Benkovski Isperih76%
×Draw14%
Kubrat10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benkovski Isperih
2.91
Kubrat
0.98

Benkovski Isperih creates 197% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 46 away

creates per match

Benkovski Isperih
2.27
Kubrat
0.74

allows per match

Benkovski Isperih
1.23
Kubrat
3.54

finishing

Benkovski Isperih+0.00on par
Kubrat+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benkovski Isperih ↓

Kubrat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Benkovski Isperih or draw
90%
Benkovski Isperih or Kubrat
86%
Draw or Kubrat
24%

Winning margin

Benkovski Isperih wins by 2+
56%
Kubrat wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Benkovski Isperih 1+ goals
94%
Benkovski Isperih 2+ goals
78%
Benkovski Isperih 3+ goals
54%
Kubrat 1+ goals
62%
Kubrat 2+ goals
26%
Kubrat 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Benkovski Isperih (draw refunded)
88%
Kubrat (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benkovski Isperih at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.23 · 44 matches

Kubrat away — creates 0.74, concedes 3.54 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benkovski Isperih attack 2.27 + Kubrat defence 3.54 → ÷2 → 2.91

Kubrat attack 0.74 + Benkovski Isperih defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Benkovski Isperih scores more
76%
level
14%
Kubrat scores more
10%

Benkovski Isperih at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Benkovski Isperih will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Benkovski Isperih 7–2 Kubrat

Benkovski Isperih beat Kubrat 7-2 in Third League - Northeast on August 17, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Branichevo in Branichevo.