Kuban U19 0–1 Fakel U19: Result & Stats

Kuban U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Fakel U19

9/16/2022

Youth Championship · Round 11Stadion Kuban

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Kuban U1950%

×Draw23%

Fakel U1927%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kuban U19Expected goals in this matchFakel U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.27

Kuban U19

1.81

Fakel U19

1.27

Kuban U19 creates 43% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 60 away

1.86

creates per match

1.12

1.43

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Kuban U19

1.86

Fakel U19

1.12

allows per match

Kuban U19

1.43

Fakel U19

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kuban U19+0.00on par

Fakel U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuban U19 ↓

Fakel U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Kuban U19 or draw

73%

Kuban U19 or Fakel U19

77%

Draw or Fakel U19

50%

Winning margin

Kuban U19 wins by 2+

28%

Fakel U19 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Kuban U19 1+ goals

84%

Kuban U19 2+ goals

54%

Kuban U19 3+ goals

27%

Fakel U19 1+ goals

72%

Fakel U19 2+ goals

36%

Fakel U19 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Kuban U19 (draw refunded)

65%

Fakel U19 (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuban U19 at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

Fakel U19 away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.75 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuban U19 attack 1.86 + Fakel U19 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.81

Fakel U19 attack 1.12 + Kuban U19 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Kuban U19 scores more

50%

level

23%

Fakel U19 scores more

27%

Kuban U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Kuban U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff