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Fakel U19 vs Kuban U19 — Youth Championship 2026

Fakel U19
Fakel U19
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Kuban U19
Kuban U19
7/22/2022Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 2Sapsan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Fakel U1937%
×Draw28%
Kuban U1935%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fakel U19
1.17
Kuban U19
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 14 away

creates per match

Fakel U19
1.47
Kuban U19
1.00

allows per match

Fakel U19
1.25
Kuban U19
0.86

finishing

Fakel U19+0.00on par
Kuban U19+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fakel U19 ↓

Kuban U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Fakel U19 or draw
65%
Fakel U19 or Kuban U19
72%
Draw or Kuban U19
63%

Winning margin

Fakel U19 wins by 2+
15%
Kuban U19 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Fakel U19 1+ goals
69%
Fakel U19 2+ goals
33%
Fakel U19 3+ goals
11%
Kuban U19 1+ goals
68%
Kuban U19 2+ goals
31%
Kuban U19 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Fakel U19 (draw refunded)
51%
Kuban U19 (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fakel U19 at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.25 · 60 matches

Kuban U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fakel U19 attack 1.47 + Kuban U19 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.17

Kuban U19 attack 1.00 + Fakel U19 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Fakel U19 scores more
37%
level
28%
Kuban U19 scores more
35%

Fakel U19 at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Fakel U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fakel U19 vs Kuban U19

Kuban U19 beat Fakel U19 1-0 in Youth Championship on July 22, 2022.

The match was played at Sapsan Arena in Moskva.