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Kuban Kholding vs Krasnodar III — Second League - Group 1 2020

Kuban Kholding
Kuban Kholding
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Krasnodar III
Krasnodar III
6/2/2021Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 32Stadion Urozhay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Kuban Kholding53%
×Draw24%
Krasnodar III23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kuban Kholding
1.66
Krasnodar III
1.00

Kuban Kholding creates 66% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 16 away

creates per match

Kuban Kholding
1.62
Krasnodar III
1.13

allows per match

Kuban Kholding
0.88
Krasnodar III
1.69

finishing

Kuban Kholding+0.00on par
Krasnodar III+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuban Kholding ↓

Krasnodar III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Kuban Kholding or draw
77%
Kuban Kholding or Krasnodar III
76%
Draw or Krasnodar III
47%

Winning margin

Kuban Kholding wins by 2+
28%
Krasnodar III wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Kuban Kholding 1+ goals
81%
Kuban Kholding 2+ goals
49%
Kuban Kholding 3+ goals
23%
Krasnodar III 1+ goals
63%
Krasnodar III 2+ goals
26%
Krasnodar III 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Kuban Kholding (draw refunded)
70%
Krasnodar III (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuban Kholding at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.88 · 90 matches

Krasnodar III away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuban Kholding attack 1.62 + Krasnodar III defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.66

Krasnodar III attack 1.13 + Kuban Kholding defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Kuban Kholding scores more
53%
level
24%
Krasnodar III scores more
23%

Kuban Kholding at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Kuban Kholding will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Kuban Kholding 1–2 Krasnodar III

Krasnodar III beat Kuban Kholding 2-1 in Second League - Group 1 on June 2, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Urozhay in Pavlovskaya.