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Krasnodar III vs Kuban Kholding — Second League - Group 1 2020

Krasnodar III
Krasnodar III
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 3
Kuban Kholding
Kuban Kholding
11/19/2020Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 16Stadion Akademii FK Krasnodar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Krasnodar III28%
×Draw25%
Kuban Kholding48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krasnodar III
1.17
Kuban Kholding
1.61

Kuban Kholding creates 38% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 91 away

creates per match

Krasnodar III
1.38
Kuban Kholding
1.35

allows per match

Krasnodar III
1.88
Kuban Kholding
0.97

finishing

Krasnodar III+0.00on par
Kuban Kholding+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krasnodar III ↓

Kuban Kholding →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Krasnodar III or draw
52%
Krasnodar III or Kuban Kholding
75%
Draw or Kuban Kholding
72%

Winning margin

Krasnodar III wins by 2+
11%
Kuban Kholding wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Krasnodar III 1+ goals
69%
Krasnodar III 2+ goals
33%
Krasnodar III 3+ goals
11%
Kuban Kholding 1+ goals
80%
Kuban Kholding 2+ goals
48%
Kuban Kholding 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Krasnodar III (draw refunded)
37%
Kuban Kholding (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krasnodar III at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

Kuban Kholding away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.97 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krasnodar III attack 1.38 + Kuban Kholding defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.17

Kuban Kholding attack 1.35 + Krasnodar III defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Krasnodar III scores more
28%
level
25%
Kuban Kholding scores more
48%

Kuban Kholding at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kuban Kholding will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Krasnodar III vs Kuban Kholding

Kuban Kholding beat Krasnodar III 5-1 in Second League - Group 1 on November 19, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Akademii FK Krasnodar in Krasnodar.