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Kuban Kholding vs Dinamo Makhachkala — Second League - Group 1 2020

Kuban Kholding
Kuban Kholding
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Dinamo Makhachkala
Dinamo Makhachkala
9/20/2020Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 7Stadion Urozhay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Kuban Kholding41%
×Draw28%
Dinamo Makhachkala31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kuban Kholding
1.28
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.08

Kuban Kholding creates 19% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 32 away

creates per match

Kuban Kholding
1.62
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.28

allows per match

Kuban Kholding
0.88
Dinamo Makhachkala
0.94

finishing

Kuban Kholding+0.00on par
Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuban Kholding ↓

Dinamo Makhachkala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Kuban Kholding or draw
69%
Kuban Kholding or Dinamo Makhachkala
72%
Draw or Dinamo Makhachkala
59%

Winning margin

Kuban Kholding wins by 2+
18%
Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Kuban Kholding 1+ goals
72%
Kuban Kholding 2+ goals
37%
Kuban Kholding 3+ goals
14%
Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals
66%
Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals
29%
Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Kuban Kholding (draw refunded)
57%
Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuban Kholding at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.88 · 90 matches

Dinamo Makhachkala away — creates 1.28, concedes 0.94 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuban Kholding attack 1.62 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.28

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 1.28 + Kuban Kholding defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kuban Kholding scores more
41%
level
28%
Dinamo Makhachkala scores more
31%

Kuban Kholding at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kuban Kholding will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Kuban Kholding 3–0 Dinamo Makhachkala

Kuban Kholding beat Dinamo Makhachkala 3-0 in Second League - Group 1 on September 20, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Urozhay in Pavlovskaya.