Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dinamo Makhachkala vs Kuban Kholding — Second League - Group 1 2020

Dinamo Makhachkala
Dinamo Makhachkala
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Kuban Kholding
Kuban Kholding
8/7/2021Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 3Stadion imeni Eleny Isinbaevoy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Dinamo Makhachkala49%
×Draw25%
Kuban Kholding26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Makhachkala
1.56
Kuban Kholding
1.05

Dinamo Makhachkala creates 49% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 91 away

creates per match

Dinamo Makhachkala
2.16
Kuban Kholding
1.35

allows per match

Dinamo Makhachkala
0.75
Kuban Kholding
0.97

finishing

Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par
Kuban Kholding+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Makhachkala ↓

Kuban Kholding →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Dinamo Makhachkala or draw
74%
Dinamo Makhachkala or Kuban Kholding
75%
Draw or Kuban Kholding
51%

Winning margin

Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+
25%
Kuban Kholding wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals
79%
Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals
46%
Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals
21%
Kuban Kholding 1+ goals
65%
Kuban Kholding 2+ goals
28%
Kuban Kholding 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)
66%
Kuban Kholding (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Makhachkala at home — creates 2.16, concedes 0.75 · 32 matches

Kuban Kholding away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.97 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 2.16 + Kuban Kholding defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.56

Kuban Kholding attack 1.35 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Dinamo Makhachkala scores more
49%
level
25%
Kuban Kholding scores more
26%

Dinamo Makhachkala at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Dinamo Makhachkala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Dinamo Makhachkala 1–1 Kuban Kholding

Dinamo Makhachkala and Kuban Kholding drew 1-1 in Second League - Group 1 on August 7, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion imeni Eleny Isinbaevoy in Makhachkala.