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KSZO 1929 vs Avia Świdnik — III Liga - Group 4 2020

KSZO 1929
KSZO 1929
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Avia Świdnik
Avia Świdnik
3/21/2026III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group IV - 23Miejski Stadion Sportowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

KSZO 192938%
×Draw25%
Avia Świdnik37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KSZO 1929
1.47
Avia Świdnik
1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 104 home / 104 away

creates per match

KSZO 1929
1.81
Avia Świdnik
1.89

allows per match

KSZO 1929
1.01
Avia Świdnik
1.12

finishing

KSZO 1929+0.00on par
Avia Świdnik+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KSZO 1929 ↓

Avia Świdnik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

KSZO 1929 or draw
63%
KSZO 1929 or Avia Świdnik
75%
Draw or Avia Świdnik
62%

Winning margin

KSZO 1929 wins by 2+
18%
Avia Świdnik wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

KSZO 1929 1+ goals
77%
KSZO 1929 2+ goals
43%
KSZO 1929 3+ goals
18%
Avia Świdnik 1+ goals
77%
Avia Świdnik 2+ goals
42%
Avia Świdnik 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

KSZO 1929 (draw refunded)
51%
Avia Świdnik (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KSZO 1929 at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.01 · 104 matches

Avia Świdnik away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.12 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KSZO 1929 attack 1.81 + Avia Świdnik defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.47

Avia Świdnik attack 1.89 + KSZO 1929 defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

KSZO 1929 scores more
38%
level
25%
Avia Świdnik scores more
37%

KSZO 1929 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "KSZO 1929 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: KSZO 1929 1–2 Avia Świdnik

Avia Świdnik beat KSZO 1929 2-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on March 21, 2026.

The match was played at Miejski Stadion Sportowy.