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Avia Świdnik vs KSZO 1929 — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Avia Świdnik
Avia Świdnik
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
KSZO 1929
KSZO 1929
5/24/2025III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 32Stadion Świdnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Avia Świdnik51%
×Draw24%
KSZO 192925%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avia Świdnik
1.76
KSZO 1929
1.17

Avia Świdnik creates 50% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 105 away

creates per match

Avia Świdnik
2.24
KSZO 1929
1.36

allows per match

Avia Świdnik
0.98
KSZO 1929
1.28

finishing

Avia Świdnik+0.00on par
KSZO 1929+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avia Świdnik ↓

KSZO 1929 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Avia Świdnik or draw
75%
Avia Świdnik or KSZO 1929
76%
Draw or KSZO 1929
49%

Winning margin

Avia Świdnik wins by 2+
28%
KSZO 1929 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Avia Świdnik 1+ goals
83%
Avia Świdnik 2+ goals
52%
Avia Świdnik 3+ goals
26%
KSZO 1929 1+ goals
69%
KSZO 1929 2+ goals
33%
KSZO 1929 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Avia Świdnik (draw refunded)
67%
KSZO 1929 (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avia Świdnik at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.98 · 105 matches

KSZO 1929 away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.28 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avia Świdnik attack 2.24 + KSZO 1929 defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.76

KSZO 1929 attack 1.36 + Avia Świdnik defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Avia Świdnik scores more
51%
level
24%
KSZO 1929 scores more
25%

Avia Świdnik at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Avia Świdnik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Avia Świdnik 3–2 KSZO 1929

Avia Świdnik beat KSZO 1929 3-2 in III Liga - Group 4 on May 24, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Świdnik in Świdnik.