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Ksour Essef vs Jendouba Sport — Ligue 2 2020

Ksour Essef
Ksour Essef
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Jendouba Sport
Jendouba Sport
M. Belguith 90'
H. Montassar 22'
B. Ouni 24'
2/27/2026Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 19

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ksour Essef56%
×Draw23%
Jendouba Sport21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ksour Essef
1.78
Jendouba Sport
1.00

Ksour Essef creates 78% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 59 away

creates per match

Ksour Essef
2.46
Jendouba Sport
0.86

allows per match

Ksour Essef
1.15
Jendouba Sport
1.10

finishing

Ksour Essef+0.00on par
Jendouba Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ksour Essef ↓

Jendouba Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Ksour Essef or draw
79%
Ksour Essef or Jendouba Sport
77%
Draw or Jendouba Sport
44%

Winning margin

Ksour Essef wins by 2+
31%
Jendouba Sport wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ksour Essef 1+ goals
83%
Ksour Essef 2+ goals
53%
Ksour Essef 3+ goals
26%
Jendouba Sport 1+ goals
63%
Jendouba Sport 2+ goals
26%
Jendouba Sport 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ksour Essef (draw refunded)
72%
Jendouba Sport (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ksour Essef at home — creates 2.46, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

Jendouba Sport away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.10 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ksour Essef attack 2.46 + Jendouba Sport defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.78

Jendouba Sport attack 0.86 + Ksour Essef defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Ksour Essef scores more
56%
level
23%
Jendouba Sport scores more
21%

Ksour Essef at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Ksour Essef will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
H. Montassar
24'
B. Ouni
90'
M. Belguith

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ksour Essef vs Jendouba Sport

Ksour Essef beat Jendouba Sport 2-1 in Ligue 2 on February 27, 2026.

Goals: H. Montassar (22'), B. Ouni (24'), M. Belguith (90').