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Jendouba Sport vs Ksour Essef — Ligue 2 2020

Jendouba Sport
Jendouba Sport
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ksour Essef
Ksour Essef
M. B. Maaroufi 14'
10/26/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Jendouba Sport59%
×Draw26%
Ksour Essef15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jendouba Sport
1.48
Ksour Essef
0.60

Jendouba Sport creates 147% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 13 away

creates per match

Jendouba Sport
1.50
Ksour Essef
0.62

allows per match

Jendouba Sport
0.58
Ksour Essef
1.46

finishing

Jendouba Sport+0.00on par
Ksour Essef+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jendouba Sport ↓

Ksour Essef →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Jendouba Sport or draw
85%
Jendouba Sport or Ksour Essef
74%
Draw or Ksour Essef
41%

Winning margin

Jendouba Sport wins by 2+
31%
Ksour Essef wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Jendouba Sport 1+ goals
77%
Jendouba Sport 2+ goals
43%
Jendouba Sport 3+ goals
19%
Ksour Essef 1+ goals
45%
Ksour Essef 2+ goals
12%
Ksour Essef 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Jendouba Sport (draw refunded)
80%
Ksour Essef (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jendouba Sport at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.58 · 60 matches

Ksour Essef away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jendouba Sport attack 1.50 + Ksour Essef defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.48

Ksour Essef attack 0.62 + Jendouba Sport defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Jendouba Sport scores more
59%
level
26%
Ksour Essef scores more
15%

Jendouba Sport at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Jendouba Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
M. B. Maaroufi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jendouba Sport vs Ksour Essef

Jendouba Sport beat Ksour Essef 1-0 in Ligue 2 on October 26, 2025.

Goals: M. B. Maaroufi (14').