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Ksour Essef vs EO Sidi Bouzid — Ligue 2 2020

Ksour Essef
Ksour Essef
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
EO Sidi Bouzid
EO Sidi Bouzid
4/5/2026Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 21

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ksour Essef62%
×Draw21%
EO Sidi Bouzid17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ksour Essef
2.05
EO Sidi Bouzid
0.96

Ksour Essef creates 114% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 49 away

creates per match

Ksour Essef
2.46
EO Sidi Bouzid
0.78

allows per match

Ksour Essef
1.15
EO Sidi Bouzid
1.65

finishing

Ksour Essef+0.00on par
EO Sidi Bouzid+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ksour Essef ↓

EO Sidi Bouzid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Ksour Essef or draw
83%
Ksour Essef or EO Sidi Bouzid
79%
Draw or EO Sidi Bouzid
38%

Winning margin

Ksour Essef wins by 2+
38%
EO Sidi Bouzid wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ksour Essef 1+ goals
87%
Ksour Essef 2+ goals
61%
Ksour Essef 3+ goals
33%
EO Sidi Bouzid 1+ goals
62%
EO Sidi Bouzid 2+ goals
25%
EO Sidi Bouzid 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ksour Essef (draw refunded)
79%
EO Sidi Bouzid (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ksour Essef at home — creates 2.46, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

EO Sidi Bouzid away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.65 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ksour Essef attack 2.46 + EO Sidi Bouzid defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 2.05

EO Sidi Bouzid attack 0.78 + Ksour Essef defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Ksour Essef scores more
62%
level
21%
EO Sidi Bouzid scores more
17%

Ksour Essef at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Ksour Essef will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ksour Essef vs EO Sidi Bouzid

Ksour Essef beat EO Sidi Bouzid 4-2 in Ligue 2 on April 5, 2026.