EO Sidi Bouzid 0–0 Ksour Essef: Result & Stats

EO Sidi Bouzid

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ksour Essef

11/8/2025

Ligue 2 · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

EO Sidi Bouzid50%

×Draw28%

Ksour Essef22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EO Sidi BouzidExpected goals in this matchKsour Essef

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.80

EO Sidi Bouzid

1.35

Ksour Essef

0.80

EO Sidi Bouzid creates 69% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 13 away

1.24

creates per match

0.62

0.98

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

EO Sidi Bouzid

1.24

Ksour Essef

0.62

allows per match

EO Sidi Bouzid

0.98

Ksour Essef

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

EO Sidi Bouzid+0.00on par

Ksour Essef+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EO Sidi Bouzid ↓

Ksour Essef →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

EO Sidi Bouzid or draw

78%

EO Sidi Bouzid or Ksour Essef

72%

Draw or Ksour Essef

50%

Winning margin

EO Sidi Bouzid wins by 2+

24%

Ksour Essef wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

EO Sidi Bouzid 1+ goals

74%

EO Sidi Bouzid 2+ goals

39%

EO Sidi Bouzid 3+ goals

15%

Ksour Essef 1+ goals

55%

Ksour Essef 2+ goals

19%

Ksour Essef 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

EO Sidi Bouzid (draw refunded)

69%

Ksour Essef (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EO Sidi Bouzid at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.98 · 50 matches

Ksour Essef away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EO Sidi Bouzid attack 1.24 + Ksour Essef defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.35

Ksour Essef attack 0.62 + EO Sidi Bouzid defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

EO Sidi Bouzid scores more

50%

level

28%

Ksour Essef scores more

22%

EO Sidi Bouzid at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "EO Sidi Bouzid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff