Ksar 1–1 Garde Nationale: Result & Stats

Ksar

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Garde Nationale

5/5/2024

Premier League · Round 23Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Ksar29%

×Draw30%

Garde Nationale41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KsarExpected goals in this matchGarde Nationale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

1.15

Ksar

0.93

Garde Nationale

1.15

Garde Nationale creates 24% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 64 away

0.85

creates per match

0.89

1.41

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Ksar

0.85

Garde Nationale

0.89

allows per match

Ksar

1.41

Garde Nationale

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ksar+0.00on par

Garde Nationale+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ksar ↓

Garde Nationale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Ksar or draw

59%

Ksar or Garde Nationale

70%

Draw or Garde Nationale

71%

Winning margin

Ksar wins by 2+

10%

Garde Nationale wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Ksar 1+ goals

61%

Ksar 2+ goals

24%

Ksar 3+ goals

7%

Garde Nationale 1+ goals

68%

Garde Nationale 2+ goals

32%

Garde Nationale 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Ksar (draw refunded)

42%

Garde Nationale (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ksar at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.41 · 78 matches

Garde Nationale away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.00 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ksar attack 0.85 + Garde Nationale defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.93

Garde Nationale attack 0.89 + Ksar defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ksar scores more

29%

level

30%

Garde Nationale scores more

41%

Garde Nationale at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Garde Nationale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff