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Garde Nationale vs Ksar — Premier League 2020

Garde Nationale
Garde Nationale
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ksar
Ksar
9/14/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Garde Nationale37%
×Draw28%
Ksar35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Garde Nationale
1.21
Ksar
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 78 away

creates per match

Garde Nationale
1.08
Ksar
0.86

allows per match

Garde Nationale
1.45
Ksar
1.33

finishing

Garde Nationale+0.00on par
Ksar+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Garde Nationale ↓

Ksar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Garde Nationale or draw
65%
Garde Nationale or Ksar
72%
Draw or Ksar
63%

Winning margin

Garde Nationale wins by 2+
16%
Ksar wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Garde Nationale 1+ goals
70%
Garde Nationale 2+ goals
34%
Garde Nationale 3+ goals
12%
Ksar 1+ goals
69%
Ksar 2+ goals
32%
Ksar 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Garde Nationale (draw refunded)
52%
Ksar (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Garde Nationale at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.45 · 66 matches

Ksar away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.33 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Garde Nationale attack 1.08 + Ksar defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.21

Ksar attack 0.86 + Garde Nationale defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Garde Nationale scores more
37%
level
28%
Ksar scores more
35%

Garde Nationale at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Garde Nationale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Garde Nationale 0–1 Ksar

Ksar beat Garde Nationale 1-0 in Premier League on September 14, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya in Nouakchott.