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ŁKS Łódź vs Chojniczanka Chojnice — I Liga 2018

ŁKS Łódź
ŁKS Łódź
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Chojniczanka Chojnice
Chojniczanka Chojnice
5/11/2019I LigaI Liga · Round 33Stadion MOSiR (Łódź)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

ŁKS Łódź53%
×Draw24%
Chojniczanka Chojnice23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ŁKS Łódź
1.75
Chojniczanka Chojnice
1.08

ŁKS Łódź creates 62% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 51 away

creates per match

ŁKS Łódź
1.63
Chojniczanka Chojnice
1.08

allows per match

ŁKS Łódź
1.07
Chojniczanka Chojnice
1.86

finishing

ŁKS Łódź+0.00on par
Chojniczanka Chojnice+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ŁKS Łódź ↓

Chojniczanka Chojnice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

ŁKS Łódź or draw
77%
ŁKS Łódź or Chojniczanka Chojnice
76%
Draw or Chojniczanka Chojnice
47%

Winning margin

ŁKS Łódź wins by 2+
29%
Chojniczanka Chojnice wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

ŁKS Łódź 1+ goals
83%
ŁKS Łódź 2+ goals
52%
ŁKS Łódź 3+ goals
25%
Chojniczanka Chojnice 1+ goals
66%
Chojniczanka Chojnice 2+ goals
29%
Chojniczanka Chojnice 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

ŁKS Łódź (draw refunded)
69%
Chojniczanka Chojnice (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ŁKS Łódź at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.07 · 103 matches

Chojniczanka Chojnice away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.86 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ŁKS Łódź attack 1.63 + Chojniczanka Chojnice defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.75

Chojniczanka Chojnice attack 1.08 + ŁKS Łódź defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

ŁKS Łódź scores more
53%
level
24%
Chojniczanka Chojnice scores more
23%

ŁKS Łódź at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "ŁKS Łódź will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: ŁKS Łódź 2–0 Chojniczanka Chojnice

ŁKS Łódź beat Chojniczanka Chojnice 2-0 in I Liga on May 11, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR (Łódź).