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Chojniczanka Chojnice vs ŁKS Łódź — I Liga 2018

Chojniczanka Chojnice
Chojniczanka Chojnice
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
ŁKS Łódź
ŁKS Łódź
8/27/2022I LigaI Liga · Round 8Stadion Miejski Chojnice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Chojniczanka Chojnice33%
×Draw25%
ŁKS Łódź41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chojniczanka Chojnice
1.30
ŁKS Łódź
1.48

ŁKS Łódź creates 14% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 103 away

creates per match

Chojniczanka Chojnice
1.47
ŁKS Łódź
1.43

allows per match

Chojniczanka Chojnice
1.53
ŁKS Łódź
1.14

finishing

Chojniczanka Chojnice+0.00on par
ŁKS Łódź+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chojniczanka Chojnice ↓

ŁKS Łódź →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Chojniczanka Chojnice or draw
59%
Chojniczanka Chojnice or ŁKS Łódź
75%
Draw or ŁKS Łódź
67%

Winning margin

Chojniczanka Chojnice wins by 2+
15%
ŁKS Łódź wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Chojniczanka Chojnice 1+ goals
73%
Chojniczanka Chojnice 2+ goals
37%
Chojniczanka Chojnice 3+ goals
14%
ŁKS Łódź 1+ goals
77%
ŁKS Łódź 2+ goals
43%
ŁKS Łódź 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Chojniczanka Chojnice (draw refunded)
45%
ŁKS Łódź (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chojniczanka Chojnice at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.53 · 51 matches

ŁKS Łódź away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.14 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chojniczanka Chojnice attack 1.47 + ŁKS Łódź defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.30

ŁKS Łódź attack 1.43 + Chojniczanka Chojnice defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Chojniczanka Chojnice scores more
33%
level
25%
ŁKS Łódź scores more
41%

ŁKS Łódź at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "ŁKS Łódź will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chojniczanka Chojnice vs ŁKS Łódź

Chojniczanka Chojnice beat ŁKS Łódź 1-0 in I Liga on August 27, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski Chojnice in Chojnice.