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ŁKS Łódź vs Bytovia Bytów — I Liga 2018

ŁKS Łódź
ŁKS Łódź
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Bytovia Bytów
Bytovia Bytów
9/1/2018I LigaI Liga · Round 8Stadion MOSiR (Łódź)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

ŁKS Łódź47%
×Draw24%
Bytovia Bytów29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ŁKS Łódź
1.69
Bytovia Bytów
1.27

ŁKS Łódź creates 33% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 17 away

creates per match

ŁKS Łódź
1.63
Bytovia Bytów
1.47

allows per match

ŁKS Łódź
1.07
Bytovia Bytów
1.76

finishing

ŁKS Łódź+0.00on par
Bytovia Bytów+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ŁKS Łódź ↓

Bytovia Bytów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

ŁKS Łódź or draw
71%
ŁKS Łódź or Bytovia Bytów
76%
Draw or Bytovia Bytów
53%

Winning margin

ŁKS Łódź wins by 2+
25%
Bytovia Bytów wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

ŁKS Łódź 1+ goals
82%
ŁKS Łódź 2+ goals
50%
ŁKS Łódź 3+ goals
24%
Bytovia Bytów 1+ goals
72%
Bytovia Bytów 2+ goals
36%
Bytovia Bytów 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

ŁKS Łódź (draw refunded)
62%
Bytovia Bytów (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ŁKS Łódź at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.07 · 103 matches

Bytovia Bytów away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ŁKS Łódź attack 1.63 + Bytovia Bytów defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.69

Bytovia Bytów attack 1.47 + ŁKS Łódź defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

ŁKS Łódź scores more
47%
level
24%
Bytovia Bytów scores more
29%

ŁKS Łódź at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "ŁKS Łódź will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ŁKS Łódź vs Bytovia Bytów

Bytovia Bytów beat ŁKS Łódź 3-2 in I Liga on September 1, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR (Łódź).