Bytovia Bytów 0–2 ŁKS Łódź: Result & Stats | I Liga

Bytovia Bytów

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

ŁKS Łódź

4/3/2019

I Liga · Round 25Stadion MOSiR (Bytów)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bytovia Bytów33%

×Draw27%

ŁKS Łódź40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bytovia BytówExpected goals in this matchŁKS Łódź

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.30

Bytovia Bytów

1.16

ŁKS Łódź

1.30

ŁKS Łódź creates 12% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 103 away

1.18

creates per match

1.43

1.18

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Bytovia Bytów

1.18

ŁKS Łódź

1.43

allows per match

Bytovia Bytów

1.18

ŁKS Łódź

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bytovia Bytów+0.00on par

ŁKS Łódź+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bytovia Bytów ↓

ŁKS Łódź →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Bytovia Bytów or draw

60%

Bytovia Bytów or ŁKS Łódź

73%

Draw or ŁKS Łódź

67%

Winning margin

Bytovia Bytów wins by 2+

14%

ŁKS Łódź wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Bytovia Bytów 1+ goals

69%

Bytovia Bytów 2+ goals

32%

Bytovia Bytów 3+ goals

11%

ŁKS Łódź 1+ goals

73%

ŁKS Łódź 2+ goals

37%

ŁKS Łódź 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Bytovia Bytów (draw refunded)

45%

ŁKS Łódź (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bytovia Bytów at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

ŁKS Łódź away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.14 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bytovia Bytów attack 1.18 + ŁKS Łódź defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.16

ŁKS Łódź attack 1.43 + Bytovia Bytów defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bytovia Bytów scores more

33%

level

27%

ŁKS Łódź scores more

40%

ŁKS Łódź at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "ŁKS Łódź will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff