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ŁKS Łódź II vs Jastrzębie — II Liga - East 2019

ŁKS Łódź II
ŁKS Łódź II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Jastrzębie
Jastrzębie
5/30/2025II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 33Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

ŁKS Łódź II43%
×Draw26%
Jastrzębie32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ŁKS Łódź II
1.47
Jastrzębie
1.23

ŁKS Łódź II creates 20% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 63 away

creates per match

ŁKS Łódź II
1.31
Jastrzębie
0.98

allows per match

ŁKS Łódź II
1.47
Jastrzębie
1.62

finishing

ŁKS Łódź II+0.00on par
Jastrzębie+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ŁKS Łódź II ↓

Jastrzębie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

ŁKS Łódź II or draw
68%
ŁKS Łódź II or Jastrzębie
74%
Draw or Jastrzębie
57%

Winning margin

ŁKS Łódź II wins by 2+
21%
Jastrzębie wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

ŁKS Łódź II 1+ goals
77%
ŁKS Łódź II 2+ goals
43%
ŁKS Łódź II 3+ goals
18%
Jastrzębie 1+ goals
71%
Jastrzębie 2+ goals
35%
Jastrzębie 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

ŁKS Łódź II (draw refunded)
57%
Jastrzębie (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ŁKS Łódź II at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.47 · 51 matches

Jastrzębie away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.62 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ŁKS Łódź II attack 1.31 + Jastrzębie defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.47

Jastrzębie attack 0.98 + ŁKS Łódź II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

ŁKS Łódź II scores more
43%
level
26%
Jastrzębie scores more
32%

ŁKS Łódź II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "ŁKS Łódź II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: ŁKS Łódź II 1–2 Jastrzębie

Jastrzębie beat ŁKS Łódź II 2-1 in II Liga - East on May 30, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz in Łódź.