Jastrzębie 1–1 ŁKS Łódź II: Result & Stats

Jastrzębie

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

ŁKS Łódź II

8/2/2025

II Liga - East · Round 2Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Jastrzębie44%

×Draw26%

ŁKS Łódź II30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JastrzębieExpected goals in this matchŁKS Łódź II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.15

Jastrzębie

1.44

ŁKS Łódź II

1.15

Jastrzębie creates 25% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 51 away

1.19

creates per match

1.04

1.25

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Jastrzębie

1.19

ŁKS Łódź II

1.04

allows per match

Jastrzębie

1.25

ŁKS Łódź II

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jastrzębie+0.00on par

ŁKS Łódź II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jastrzębie ↓

ŁKS Łódź II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Jastrzębie or draw

70%

Jastrzębie or ŁKS Łódź II

74%

Draw or ŁKS Łódź II

56%

Winning margin

Jastrzębie wins by 2+

21%

ŁKS Łódź II wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Jastrzębie 1+ goals

76%

Jastrzębie 2+ goals

42%

Jastrzębie 3+ goals

18%

ŁKS Łódź II 1+ goals

68%

ŁKS Łódź II 2+ goals

32%

ŁKS Łódź II 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Jastrzębie (draw refunded)

59%

ŁKS Łódź II (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jastrzębie at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.25 · 63 matches

ŁKS Łódź II away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.69 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jastrzębie attack 1.19 + ŁKS Łódź II defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.44

ŁKS Łódź II attack 1.04 + Jastrzębie defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Jastrzębie scores more

44%

level

26%

ŁKS Łódź II scores more

30%

Jastrzębie at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Jastrzębie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff