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ŁKS Łódź II vs Chojniczanka Chojnice — II Liga - East 2019

ŁKS Łódź II
ŁKS Łódź II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Chojniczanka Chojnice
Chojniczanka Chojnice
8/11/2024II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 4Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

ŁKS Łódź II33%
×Draw26%
Chojniczanka Chojnice42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ŁKS Łódź II
1.27
Chojniczanka Chojnice
1.46

Chojniczanka Chojnice creates 15% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 87 away

creates per match

ŁKS Łódź II
1.31
Chojniczanka Chojnice
1.45

allows per match

ŁKS Łódź II
1.47
Chojniczanka Chojnice
1.23

finishing

ŁKS Łódź II+0.00on par
Chojniczanka Chojnice+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ŁKS Łódź II ↓

Chojniczanka Chojnice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

ŁKS Łódź II or draw
58%
ŁKS Łódź II or Chojniczanka Chojnice
74%
Draw or Chojniczanka Chojnice
67%

Winning margin

ŁKS Łódź II wins by 2+
14%
Chojniczanka Chojnice wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

ŁKS Łódź II 1+ goals
72%
ŁKS Łódź II 2+ goals
36%
ŁKS Łódź II 3+ goals
14%
Chojniczanka Chojnice 1+ goals
77%
Chojniczanka Chojnice 2+ goals
43%
Chojniczanka Chojnice 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

ŁKS Łódź II (draw refunded)
44%
Chojniczanka Chojnice (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ŁKS Łódź II at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.47 · 51 matches

Chojniczanka Chojnice away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.23 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ŁKS Łódź II attack 1.31 + Chojniczanka Chojnice defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.27

Chojniczanka Chojnice attack 1.45 + ŁKS Łódź II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

ŁKS Łódź II scores more
33%
level
26%
Chojniczanka Chojnice scores more
42%

Chojniczanka Chojnice at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Chojniczanka Chojnice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ŁKS Łódź II vs Chojniczanka Chojnice

Chojniczanka Chojnice beat ŁKS Łódź II 1-0 in II Liga - East on August 11, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz in Łódź.