Chojniczanka Chojnice 1–2 ŁKS Łódź II

Chojniczanka Chojnice

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

ŁKS Łódź II

3/7/2025

II Liga - East · Round 21Stadion Miejski Chojnice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Chojniczanka Chojnice56%

×Draw23%

ŁKS Łódź II21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chojniczanka ChojniceExpected goals in this matchŁKS Łódź II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.02

Chojniczanka Chojnice

1.80

ŁKS Łódź II

1.02

Chojniczanka Chojnice creates 76% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 51 away

1.91

creates per match

1.04

0.99

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Chojniczanka Chojnice

1.91

ŁKS Łódź II

1.04

allows per match

Chojniczanka Chojnice

0.99

ŁKS Łódź II

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chojniczanka Chojnice+0.00on par

ŁKS Łódź II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chojniczanka Chojnice ↓

ŁKS Łódź II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Chojniczanka Chojnice or draw

79%

Chojniczanka Chojnice or ŁKS Łódź II

77%

Draw or ŁKS Łódź II

44%

Winning margin

Chojniczanka Chojnice wins by 2+

31%

ŁKS Łódź II wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Chojniczanka Chojnice 1+ goals

83%

Chojniczanka Chojnice 2+ goals

54%

Chojniczanka Chojnice 3+ goals

27%

ŁKS Łódź II 1+ goals

64%

ŁKS Łódź II 2+ goals

27%

ŁKS Łódź II 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Chojniczanka Chojnice (draw refunded)

72%

ŁKS Łódź II (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chojniczanka Chojnice at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.99 · 87 matches

ŁKS Łódź II away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.69 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chojniczanka Chojnice attack 1.91 + ŁKS Łódź II defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.80

ŁKS Łódź II attack 1.04 + Chojniczanka Chojnice defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Chojniczanka Chojnice scores more

56%

level

23%

ŁKS Łódź II scores more

21%

Chojniczanka Chojnice at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Chojniczanka Chojnice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff