Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Krylya Sovetov vs Zenit Saint Petersburg — Cup 2019

Krylya Sovetov
Krylya Sovetov
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Zenit Saint Petersburg
Zenit Saint Petersburg
9/14/2022CupCup · Premier League Path - Group Stage - 2Solidarnost Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Krylya Sovetov34%
×Draw24%
Zenit Saint Petersburg42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krylya Sovetov
1.40
Zenit Saint Petersburg
1.60

Zenit Saint Petersburg creates 14% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 22 away

creates per match

Krylya Sovetov
1.88
Zenit Saint Petersburg
1.45

allows per match

Krylya Sovetov
1.76
Zenit Saint Petersburg
0.91

finishing

Krylya Sovetov+0.00on par
Zenit Saint Petersburg+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krylya Sovetov ↓

Zenit Saint Petersburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Krylya Sovetov or draw
58%
Krylya Sovetov or Zenit Saint Petersburg
76%
Draw or Zenit Saint Petersburg
66%

Winning margin

Krylya Sovetov wins by 2+
15%
Zenit Saint Petersburg wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Krylya Sovetov 1+ goals
75%
Krylya Sovetov 2+ goals
41%
Krylya Sovetov 3+ goals
17%
Zenit Saint Petersburg 1+ goals
80%
Zenit Saint Petersburg 2+ goals
47%
Zenit Saint Petersburg 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Krylya Sovetov (draw refunded)
44%
Zenit Saint Petersburg (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krylya Sovetov at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

Zenit Saint Petersburg away — creates 1.45, concedes 0.91 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krylya Sovetov attack 1.88 + Zenit Saint Petersburg defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.40

Zenit Saint Petersburg attack 1.45 + Krylya Sovetov defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Krylya Sovetov scores more
34%
level
24%
Zenit Saint Petersburg scores more
42%

Zenit Saint Petersburg at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Zenit Saint Petersburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Krylya Sovetov vs Zenit Saint Petersburg

Krylya Sovetov beat Zenit Saint Petersburg 2-0 in Cup on September 14, 2022.

The match was played at Solidarnost Arena in Samara.