Krylya Sovetov 2–0 TOM Tomsk: Result & Stats

Krylya Sovetov

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

TOM Tomsk

E. Golenkov 69'

I. Sergeev 60'

9/13/2020

First League · Round 9Samara Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Krylya Sovetov74%

×Draw17%

TOM Tomsk9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Krylya SovetovExpected goals in this matchTOM Tomsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.24

0.64

Krylya Sovetov

2.24

TOM Tomsk

0.64

Krylya Sovetov creates 250% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 73 away

3.14

creates per match

0.90

0.38

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Krylya Sovetov

3.14

TOM Tomsk

0.90

allows per match

Krylya Sovetov

0.38

TOM Tomsk

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Krylya Sovetov+0.00on par

TOM Tomsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krylya Sovetov ↓

TOM Tomsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Krylya Sovetov or draw

91%

Krylya Sovetov or TOM Tomsk

83%

Draw or TOM Tomsk

26%

Winning margin

Krylya Sovetov wins by 2+

49%

TOM Tomsk wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Krylya Sovetov 1+ goals

89%

Krylya Sovetov 2+ goals

65%

Krylya Sovetov 3+ goals

38%

TOM Tomsk 1+ goals

47%

TOM Tomsk 2+ goals

14%

TOM Tomsk 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Krylya Sovetov (draw refunded)

89%

TOM Tomsk (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krylya Sovetov at home — creates 3.14, concedes 0.38 · 21 matches

TOM Tomsk away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.34 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krylya Sovetov attack 3.14 + TOM Tomsk defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 2.24

TOM Tomsk attack 0.90 + Krylya Sovetov defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Krylya Sovetov scores more

74%

level

17%

TOM Tomsk scores more

9%

Krylya Sovetov at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Krylya Sovetov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

O. Shalaev

38'

V. Sarveli

45+2'

D. Talalay

59'

P. Dolgov← I. Viznovich

60'

I. Sergeev

68'

E. Golenkov← V. Sarveli

69'

E. Golenkov

73'

D. Yakuba← A. Gaţcan

77'

M. Kazankov

77'

M. Zeffane← Y. Gorshkov

78'

A. Akhjadov← M. Kazankov

80'

R. Gînsari← I. Sergeev

81'

D. Poyarkov

83'

I. Andreev← P. Kireenko

86'

N. Chernov← S. Bozhin

Krylya

TOM

1

93

5

4

72

10

▼

15

18

19

21

▼

Kireenko

17

▼

Viznovich

39

Frolov

2

Poluyakht

47

▼

Bozhin

4

Soldatenk

84

▼

11

17

8

5

▼

Gorshkov

33

⚽

▼

Sergeev

10

▼

Sarveli

Manager: I. Osinkin

68'▲E. Golenkov←▼V. Sarveli

73'▲D. Yakuba←▼A. Gaţcan

77'▲M. Zeffane←▼Y. Gorshkov

80'▲R. Gînsari←▼I. Sergeev

86'▲N. Chernov←▼S. Bozhin

Krylya Sovetov substitutes

69Golenkov6Yakuba18Zeffane14Gînsari3Chernov1Lomaev19Tsypchenko52Smirnov57Tyurin77Kabutov81Ovsyannikov

Manager: V. Sebelev

59'▲P. Dolgov←▼I. Viznovich

78'▲A. Akhjadov←▼M. Kazankov

83'▲I. Andreev←▼P. Kireenko

TOM Tomsk substitutes

9Dolgov95Akhjadov8Andreev20Dmitriev35Arapov36Tekuchev88Buranov97Kamenshchikov