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Krylya Sovetov vs Tom Tomsk — First League 2018

Krylya Sovetov
Krylya Sovetov
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Tom Tomsk
Tom Tomsk
7/26/2017First LeagueFirst League · Round 4Stadion Metallurg (Samara)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Krylya Sovetov72%
×Draw18%
Tom Tomsk10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krylya Sovetov
2.16
Tom Tomsk
0.66

Krylya Sovetov creates 227% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 74 away

creates per match

Krylya Sovetov
3.00
Tom Tomsk
0.91

allows per match

Krylya Sovetov
0.41
Tom Tomsk
1.32

finishing

Krylya Sovetov+0.00on par
Tom Tomsk+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krylya Sovetov ↓

Tom Tomsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Krylya Sovetov or draw
90%
Krylya Sovetov or Tom Tomsk
82%
Draw or Tom Tomsk
28%

Winning margin

Krylya Sovetov wins by 2+
47%
Tom Tomsk wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Krylya Sovetov 1+ goals
88%
Krylya Sovetov 2+ goals
63%
Krylya Sovetov 3+ goals
36%
Tom Tomsk 1+ goals
48%
Tom Tomsk 2+ goals
14%
Tom Tomsk 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Krylya Sovetov (draw refunded)
88%
Tom Tomsk (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krylya Sovetov at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.41 · 22 matches

Tom Tomsk away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.32 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krylya Sovetov attack 3.00 + Tom Tomsk defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 2.16

Tom Tomsk attack 0.91 + Krylya Sovetov defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Krylya Sovetov scores more
72%
level
18%
Tom Tomsk scores more
10%

Krylya Sovetov at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Krylya Sovetov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Krylya Sovetov vs Tom Tomsk

Tom Tomsk beat Krylya Sovetov 1-0 in First League on July 26, 2017.

The match was played at Stadion Metallurg (Samara).