Krylya Sovetov 3–0 Rotor Volgograd: Result & Stats

Krylya Sovetov

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Rotor Volgograd

E. Golenkov 79'

D. Tsypchenko 44'

D. Kombarov 33'

10/21/2020

Cup · Group Stage - 3Samara Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Krylya Sovetov45%

×Draw24%

Rotor Volgograd31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Krylya SovetovExpected goals in this matchRotor Volgograd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.38

Krylya Sovetov

1.69

Rotor Volgograd

1.38

Krylya Sovetov creates 22% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 10 away

1.88

creates per match

1.00

1.76

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Krylya Sovetov

1.88

Rotor Volgograd

1.00

allows per match

Krylya Sovetov

1.76

Rotor Volgograd

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Krylya Sovetov+0.00on par

Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krylya Sovetov ↓

Rotor Volgograd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Krylya Sovetov or draw

69%

Krylya Sovetov or Rotor Volgograd

76%

Draw or Rotor Volgograd

55%

Winning margin

Krylya Sovetov wins by 2+

23%

Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Krylya Sovetov 1+ goals

82%

Krylya Sovetov 2+ goals

50%

Krylya Sovetov 3+ goals

24%

Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals

75%

Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals

40%

Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Krylya Sovetov (draw refunded)

59%

Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krylya Sovetov at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

Rotor Volgograd away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krylya Sovetov attack 1.88 + Rotor Volgograd defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.69

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.00 + Krylya Sovetov defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Krylya Sovetov scores more

45%

level

24%

Rotor Volgograd scores more

31%

Krylya Sovetov at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Krylya Sovetov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

44'

57'

57'

57'

Y. Gorshkov← V. Poluyakhtov

62'

Y. Shcherbin← A. Ponce

68'

E. Golenkov← D. Kabutov

77'

E. Pesegov

77'

D. Sesyavin← N. Kipiani

79'

E. Golenkov

83'

B. Sokolov← M. Vityugov

86'

A. Balakhonov← P. Matricardi

Krylya

Rotor

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: I. Osinkin

57'▲A. Gaţcan←▼D. Yakuba

57'▲I. Sergeev←▼R. Ezhov

57'▲Y. Gorshkov←▼V. Poluyakhtov

68'▲E. Golenkov←▼D. Kabutov

83'▲B. Sokolov←▼M. Vityugov

Krylya Sovetov substitutes

GaţcanSergeevGorshkovGolenkovSokolovZinkovskiyOvsyannikovLomaevSherstnevSarveli

Manager: A. Khatskevich

62'▲Y. Shcherbin←▼A. Ponce

77'▲D. Sesyavin←▼N. Kipiani

86'▲A. Balakhonov←▼P. Matricardi

Rotor Volgograd substitutes

ShcherbinSesyavinBalakhonovRepin