Krylya Sovetov 1–1 Rotor Volgograd: Result & Stats

Krylya Sovetov

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Rotor Volgograd

S. Kornilenko 61'

M. Biryukov 41'

10/14/2017

First League · Round 18Stadion Metallurg (Samara)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Krylya Sovetov65%

×Draw21%

Rotor Volgograd14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Krylya SovetovExpected goals in this matchRotor Volgograd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

0.74

Krylya Sovetov

1.93

Rotor Volgograd

0.74

Krylya Sovetov creates 161% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 88 away

2.91

creates per match

1.06

0.43

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Krylya Sovetov

2.91

Rotor Volgograd

1.06

allows per match

Krylya Sovetov

0.43

Rotor Volgograd

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Krylya Sovetov+0.00on par

Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krylya Sovetov ↓

Rotor Volgograd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Krylya Sovetov or draw

86%

Krylya Sovetov or Rotor Volgograd

79%

Draw or Rotor Volgograd

35%

Winning margin

Krylya Sovetov wins by 2+

40%

Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Krylya Sovetov 1+ goals

85%

Krylya Sovetov 2+ goals

57%

Krylya Sovetov 3+ goals

30%

Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals

52%

Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals

17%

Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Krylya Sovetov (draw refunded)

83%

Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krylya Sovetov at home — creates 2.91, concedes 0.43 · 23 matches

Rotor Volgograd away — creates 1.06, concedes 0.95 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krylya Sovetov attack 2.91 + Rotor Volgograd defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.93

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.06 + Krylya Sovetov defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Krylya Sovetov scores more

65%

level

21%

Rotor Volgograd scores more

14%

Krylya Sovetov at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Krylya Sovetov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

V. Sysuev← V. Borzykh

41'

M. Biryukov

46'

A. Aliev← S. Samodin

59'

V. Zinkov← A. Chochiev

61'

S. Kornilenko

64'

I. Drannikov← M. Sultonov

66'

M. Votinov← M. Biryukov

76'

E. Bashkirov← G. Zotov

89'

I. Stolbovoy← A. Kireev

Krylya

Rotor

16

Kobzev

88

▼

20

2

67

5

33

22

▼

Sultonov

21

▼

Borzykh

7

Romanenko

9

⚽

▼

14

5

6

15

▼

4

31

27

9

▼

Chochiev

64

Lanin

8

⚽

Kornilenk

22

▼

Samodin

Manager: A. Tikhonov

46'▲A. Aliev←▼S. Samodin

59'▲V. Zinkov←▼A. Chochiev

76'▲E. Bashkirov←▼G. Zotov

Krylya Sovetov substitutes

10Aliev21Zinkov2Bashkirov3Yatchenko7Golyshev23Nemchaninov24Gotsuk28Leonov42Tikhonov77Georgievsky

Manager: V. Esipov

38'▲V. Sysuev←▼V. Borzykh

64'▲I. Drannikov←▼M. Sultonov

66'▲M. Votinov←▼M. Biryukov

89'▲I. Stolbovoy←▼A. Kireev

Rotor Volgograd substitutes

47Sysuev4Drannikov45Votinov24Stolbovoy1Polyakov13Krutov18Nikolaev

Match Recap: Krylya Sovetov vs Rotor Volgograd

Krylya Sovetov and Rotor Volgograd drew 1-1 in First League on October 14, 2017.

Goals: M. Biryukov (41'), S. Kornilenko (61').

The match was played at Stadion Metallurg (Samara).

Krylya Sovetov vs Rotor Volgograd — First League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Krylya Sovetov vs Rotor Volgograd