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Krylya Sovetov vs FC UFA — Premier League 2018

Krylya Sovetov
Krylya Sovetov
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
FC UFA
FC UFA
5/5/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 27Samara Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Krylya Sovetov45%
×Draw28%
FC UFA27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krylya Sovetov
1.31
FC UFA
0.93

Krylya Sovetov creates 41% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 61 away

creates per match

Krylya Sovetov
1.31
FC UFA
0.69

allows per match

Krylya Sovetov
1.17
FC UFA
1.31

finishing

Krylya Sovetov+0.00on par
FC UFA+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krylya Sovetov ↓

FC UFA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Krylya Sovetov or draw
73%
Krylya Sovetov or FC UFA
72%
Draw or FC UFA
55%

Winning margin

Krylya Sovetov wins by 2+
21%
FC UFA wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Krylya Sovetov 1+ goals
73%
Krylya Sovetov 2+ goals
38%
Krylya Sovetov 3+ goals
14%
FC UFA 1+ goals
61%
FC UFA 2+ goals
24%
FC UFA 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Krylya Sovetov (draw refunded)
63%
FC UFA (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krylya Sovetov at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.17 · 104 matches

FC UFA away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.31 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krylya Sovetov attack 1.31 + FC UFA defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.31

FC UFA attack 0.69 + Krylya Sovetov defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Krylya Sovetov scores more
45%
level
28%
FC UFA scores more
27%

Krylya Sovetov at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Krylya Sovetov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Krylya Sovetov vs FC UFA

Krylya Sovetov and FC UFA drew 1-1 in Premier League on May 5, 2019.

The match was played at Samara Arena in Samara.