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FC UFA vs Krylya Sovetov — Premier League 2018

FC UFA
FC UFA
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Krylya Sovetov
Krylya Sovetov
7/27/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Stadion Neftyanik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

FC UFA45%
×Draw27%
Krylya Sovetov29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC UFA
1.41
Krylya Sovetov
1.07

FC UFA creates 32% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 106 away

creates per match

FC UFA
1.02
Krylya Sovetov
1.03

allows per match

FC UFA
1.11
Krylya Sovetov
1.79

finishing

FC UFA+0.00on par
Krylya Sovetov+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC UFA ↓

Krylya Sovetov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

FC UFA or draw
71%
FC UFA or Krylya Sovetov
73%
Draw or Krylya Sovetov
55%

Winning margin

FC UFA wins by 2+
21%
Krylya Sovetov wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

FC UFA 1+ goals
76%
FC UFA 2+ goals
41%
FC UFA 3+ goals
17%
Krylya Sovetov 1+ goals
66%
Krylya Sovetov 2+ goals
29%
Krylya Sovetov 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

FC UFA (draw refunded)
61%
Krylya Sovetov (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC UFA at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.11 · 61 matches

Krylya Sovetov away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.79 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC UFA attack 1.02 + Krylya Sovetov defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.41

Krylya Sovetov attack 1.03 + FC UFA defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FC UFA scores more
45%
level
27%
Krylya Sovetov scores more
29%

FC UFA at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FC UFA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC UFA vs Krylya Sovetov

FC UFA beat Krylya Sovetov 2-1 in Premier League on July 27, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Neftyanik in Ufa.