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Krylya Sovetov vs Fakel Voronezh — Cup 2019

Krylya Sovetov
Krylya Sovetov
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fakel Voronezh
Fakel Voronezh
11/27/2022CupCup · Premier League Path - Group Stage - 5Solidarnost Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Krylya Sovetov45%
×Draw25%
Fakel Voronezh30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krylya Sovetov
1.57
Fakel Voronezh
1.25

Krylya Sovetov creates 26% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 11 away

creates per match

Krylya Sovetov
1.88
Fakel Voronezh
0.73

allows per match

Krylya Sovetov
1.76
Fakel Voronezh
1.27

finishing

Krylya Sovetov+0.00on par
Fakel Voronezh+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krylya Sovetov ↓

Fakel Voronezh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Krylya Sovetov or draw
70%
Krylya Sovetov or Fakel Voronezh
75%
Draw or Fakel Voronezh
55%

Winning margin

Krylya Sovetov wins by 2+
23%
Fakel Voronezh wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Krylya Sovetov 1+ goals
79%
Krylya Sovetov 2+ goals
46%
Krylya Sovetov 3+ goals
21%
Fakel Voronezh 1+ goals
71%
Fakel Voronezh 2+ goals
36%
Fakel Voronezh 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Krylya Sovetov (draw refunded)
60%
Fakel Voronezh (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krylya Sovetov at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

Fakel Voronezh away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krylya Sovetov attack 1.88 + Fakel Voronezh defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.57

Fakel Voronezh attack 0.73 + Krylya Sovetov defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Krylya Sovetov scores more
45%
level
25%
Fakel Voronezh scores more
30%

Krylya Sovetov at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Krylya Sovetov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Krylya Sovetov vs Fakel Voronezh

Krylya Sovetov beat Fakel Voronezh 1-0 in Cup on November 27, 2022.

The match was played at Solidarnost Arena in Samara.