Fakel 1–1 Krylia Sovetov: Result & Stats

Fakel

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Krylia Sovetov

5/24/2025

Premier League · Round 30Stadion Fakel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Fakel45%

×Draw28%

Krylia Sovetov28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FakelExpected goals in this matchKrylia Sovetov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.99

Fakel

1.34

Krylia Sovetov

0.99

Fakel creates 35% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 106 away

0.89

creates per match

1.03

0.96

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Fakel

0.89

Krylia Sovetov

1.03

allows per match

Fakel

0.96

Krylia Sovetov

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fakel+0.00on par

Krylia Sovetov+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fakel ↓

Krylia Sovetov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Fakel or draw

72%

Fakel or Krylia Sovetov

72%

Draw or Krylia Sovetov

55%

Winning margin

Fakel wins by 2+

21%

Krylia Sovetov wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Fakel 1+ goals

74%

Fakel 2+ goals

39%

Fakel 3+ goals

15%

Krylia Sovetov 1+ goals

63%

Krylia Sovetov 2+ goals

26%

Krylia Sovetov 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Fakel (draw refunded)

62%

Krylia Sovetov (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fakel at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.96 · 46 matches

Krylia Sovetov away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.79 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fakel attack 0.89 + Krylia Sovetov defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.34

Krylia Sovetov attack 1.03 + Fakel defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Fakel scores more

45%

level

28%

Krylia Sovetov scores more

28%

Fakel at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Fakel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff