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Fakel Voronezh vs Krylya Sovetov — Premier League 2018

Fakel Voronezh
Fakel Voronezh
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Krylya Sovetov
Krylya Sovetov
5/28/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 29Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Fakel Voronezh45%
×Draw28%
Krylya Sovetov28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fakel Voronezh
1.34
Krylya Sovetov
0.99

Fakel Voronezh creates 35% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 106 away

creates per match

Fakel Voronezh
0.89
Krylya Sovetov
1.03

allows per match

Fakel Voronezh
0.96
Krylya Sovetov
1.79

finishing

Fakel Voronezh+0.00on par
Krylya Sovetov+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fakel Voronezh ↓

Krylya Sovetov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Fakel Voronezh or draw
72%
Fakel Voronezh or Krylya Sovetov
72%
Draw or Krylya Sovetov
55%

Winning margin

Fakel Voronezh wins by 2+
21%
Krylya Sovetov wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Fakel Voronezh 1+ goals
74%
Fakel Voronezh 2+ goals
39%
Fakel Voronezh 3+ goals
15%
Krylya Sovetov 1+ goals
63%
Krylya Sovetov 2+ goals
26%
Krylya Sovetov 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Fakel Voronezh (draw refunded)
62%
Krylya Sovetov (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fakel Voronezh at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.96 · 46 matches

Krylya Sovetov away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.79 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fakel Voronezh attack 0.89 + Krylya Sovetov defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.34

Krylya Sovetov attack 1.03 + Fakel Voronezh defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Fakel Voronezh scores more
45%
level
28%
Krylya Sovetov scores more
28%

Fakel Voronezh at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Fakel Voronezh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Fakel Voronezh 2–1 Krylya Sovetov

Fakel Voronezh beat Krylya Sovetov 2-1 in Premier League on May 28, 2023.

The match was played at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov in Voronezh.