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Krylya Sovetov vs Fakel Voronezh — First League 2018

Krylya Sovetov
Krylya Sovetov
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Fakel Voronezh
Fakel Voronezh
4/17/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 37Samara Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Krylya Sovetov68%
×Draw19%
Fakel Voronezh13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krylya Sovetov
2.16
Fakel Voronezh
0.80

Krylya Sovetov creates 170% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 89 away

creates per match

Krylya Sovetov
3.00
Fakel Voronezh
1.20

allows per match

Krylya Sovetov
0.41
Fakel Voronezh
1.31

finishing

Krylya Sovetov+0.00on par
Fakel Voronezh+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krylya Sovetov ↓

Fakel Voronezh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Krylya Sovetov or draw
87%
Krylya Sovetov or Fakel Voronezh
81%
Draw or Fakel Voronezh
32%

Winning margin

Krylya Sovetov wins by 2+
44%
Fakel Voronezh wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Krylya Sovetov 1+ goals
88%
Krylya Sovetov 2+ goals
63%
Krylya Sovetov 3+ goals
36%
Fakel Voronezh 1+ goals
55%
Fakel Voronezh 2+ goals
19%
Fakel Voronezh 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Krylya Sovetov (draw refunded)
84%
Fakel Voronezh (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krylya Sovetov at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.41 · 22 matches

Fakel Voronezh away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.31 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krylya Sovetov attack 3.00 + Fakel Voronezh defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 2.16

Fakel Voronezh attack 1.20 + Krylya Sovetov defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Krylya Sovetov scores more
68%
level
19%
Fakel Voronezh scores more
13%

Krylya Sovetov at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Krylya Sovetov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Krylya Sovetov vs Fakel Voronezh

Krylya Sovetov beat Fakel Voronezh 5-1 in First League on April 17, 2021.

The match was played at Samara Arena in Samara.