Krylya Sovetov 3–3 Dinamo Moscow: Result & Stats

Krylya Sovetov

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

Dinamo Moscow

B. Garré 90+1' (pen)

G. Bijl 74'

Fernando Costanza 35'

F. Smolov 39'

K. Tyukavin 30'

A. Zakharyan 8'

7/29/2023

Premier League · Round 2Solidarnost Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Krylya Sovetov38%

×Draw26%

Dinamo Moscow36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Krylya SovetovExpected goals in this matchDinamo Moscow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.29

Krylya Sovetov

1.34

Dinamo Moscow

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 104 home / 120 away

1.31

creates per match

1.41

1.17

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Krylya Sovetov

1.31

Dinamo Moscow

1.41

allows per match

Krylya Sovetov

1.17

Dinamo Moscow

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Krylya Sovetov+0.00on par

Dinamo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krylya Sovetov ↓

Dinamo Moscow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Krylya Sovetov or draw

64%

Krylya Sovetov or Dinamo Moscow

74%

Draw or Dinamo Moscow

62%

Winning margin

Krylya Sovetov wins by 2+

17%

Dinamo Moscow wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Krylya Sovetov 1+ goals

74%

Krylya Sovetov 2+ goals

39%

Krylya Sovetov 3+ goals

15%

Dinamo Moscow 1+ goals

72%

Dinamo Moscow 2+ goals

37%

Dinamo Moscow 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Krylya Sovetov (draw refunded)

52%

Dinamo Moscow (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krylya Sovetov at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.17 · 104 matches

Dinamo Moscow away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.37 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krylya Sovetov attack 1.31 + Dinamo Moscow defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.34

Dinamo Moscow attack 1.41 + Krylya Sovetov defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Krylya Sovetov scores more

38%

level

26%

Dinamo Moscow scores more

36%

Krylya Sovetov at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Krylya Sovetov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

47

A. Zakharyan

Dinamo Moscow · M

8.3

Match Events

8'

A. Zakharyan↳ F. Smolov

15'

Daniil Fomin

30'

K. Tyukavin↳ A. Zakharyan

35'

Fernando Costanza↳ E. Karpitskiy

37'

Nicolás Marichal

39'

F. Smolov↳ M. Ngamaleu

45+4'

Amar Rahmanović

52'

Roman Evgenev

64'

Y. Gorshkov← N. Rasskazov

64'

N. Saltykov← A. Rahmanović

64'

V. Khubulov← E. Karpitskiy

74'

V. Karapuzov← A. Zakharyan

74'

G. Bijl↳ M. Vityugov

76'

S. Babkin← M. Vityugov

80'

V. Grulev← M. Ngamaleu

80'

A. Kutitskiy← F. Smolov

84'

Vladimir Khubulov

90+1'

S. Parshivlyuk← K. Tyukavin

90+1'

B. GarréPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KrylyaDinamo

Overview

53%Possession47%

17Total Shots8

2.52Expected Goals (xG)1.29

3Corners3

8Fouls14

Shots

17Total Shots8

7On Target5

7Off Target2

3Blocked1

8Inside Box4

9Outside Box4

Passing

53%Possession47%

405Total Passes380

336Accurate Passes310

83%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls14

3Yellow Cards2

3Offsides2

Premier League: Krylya Sovetov 3–3 Dinamo Moscow

Krylya Sovetov and Dinamo Moscow drew 3-3 in Premier League on July 29, 2023.

Goals: A. Zakharyan (8'), K. Tyukavin (30'), Fernando Costanza (35'), F. Smolov (39'), G. Bijl (74'), B. Garré (90+1' pen).

Krylya Sovetov controlled possession (53%) and registered 17 shots to 8.

The match was played at Solidarnost Arena in Samara.

Krylya Sovetov vs Dinamo Moscow — Premier League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Premier League: Krylya Sovetov 3–3 Dinamo Moscow