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Dynamo vs Krylia Sovetov — Premier League 2025

Dynamo
Dynamo
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Krylia Sovetov
Krylia Sovetov
Y. Gladyshev 72'
A. Miranchuk 34'
N. Moumi Ngamaleu 26' (pen)
K. Tyukavin 15'
3/1/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 19VTB Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Dynamo61%
×Draw21%
Krylia Sovetov18%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo
2.08
Krylia Sovetov
1.05

Dynamo creates 98% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 17 away

creates per match

Dynamo
2.16
Krylia Sovetov
0.82

allows per match

Dynamo
1.29
Krylia Sovetov
2.00

finishing

Dynamo+0.00on par
Krylia Sovetov+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo ↓

Krylia Sovetov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Dynamo or draw
82%
Dynamo or Krylia Sovetov
79%
Draw or Krylia Sovetov
39%

Winning margin

Dynamo wins by 2+
37%
Krylia Sovetov wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Dynamo 1+ goals
87%
Dynamo 2+ goals
61%
Dynamo 3+ goals
34%
Krylia Sovetov 1+ goals
65%
Krylia Sovetov 2+ goals
28%
Krylia Sovetov 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Dynamo (draw refunded)
77%
Krylia Sovetov (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.29 · 31 matches

Krylia Sovetov away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo attack 2.16 + Krylia Sovetov defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.08

Krylia Sovetov attack 0.82 + Dynamo defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Dynamo scores more
61%
level
21%
Krylia Sovetov scores more
18%

Dynamo at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13
N. Moumi NgamaleuDynamoDynamo · M
8.3

Match Events

15'
K. Tyukavin↳ N. Moumi Ngamaleu
26'
N. Moumi NgamaleuPenalty
34'
Sergey Bozhin
34'
A. Miranchuk↳ K. Tyukavin
39'
Rubens
45'
Thomas Galdames
46'
K. Stolbov← I. Oleynikov
46'
A. Shumansky← Fernando Costanza
63'
I. Akhmetov← M. Banjac
65'
I. Sergeev← A. Miranchuk
65'
Y. Gladyshev← K. Tyukavin
65'
R. Fernandez← N. Marichal
68'
K. Pechenin← D. Fernandez
72'
Y. Gladyshev↳ Bitello
79'
Roman EvgenjevPenalty cancelled
81'
D. Glebov← Rubens
81'
V. Ignatenko← C. Geoffrey
83'
Arthur Gomes← N. Moumi Ngamaleu
90'
Thomas Galdames
90'
Thomas Galdames

Possession

52%Dynamo

Shots

13Dynamo

Pass accuracy

51%Dynamo

Statistics

DynamoKrylia
Overview
52%Possession48%
13Total Shots7
3Corners5
8Fouls14
Shots
13Total Shots7
5On Target1
6Off Target5
2Blocked1
9Inside Box4
4Outside Box3
Passing
52%Possession48%
440Total Passes406
358Accurate Passes314
81%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
8Fouls14
1Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1
5Offsides3

Premier League: Dynamo 4–0 Krylia Sovetov

Dynamo beat Krylia Sovetov 4-0 in Premier League on March 1, 2026.

Goals: K. Tyukavin (15'), N. Moumi Ngamaleu (26' pen), A. Miranchuk (34'), Y. Gladyshev (72').

Dynamo controlled possession (52%) and registered 13 shots to 7.

The match was played at VTB Arena in Moscow.