Krylia Sovetov 2–3 Dynamo: Result & Stats

Krylia Sovetov

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Dynamo

T. Galdames 88'

I. Akhmetov 59'

I. Sergeev 34'

Bitello 24'

D. Fomin 9'

9/26/2025

Premier League · Round 10Samara Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Krylia Sovetov36%

×Draw26%

Dynamo39%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Krylia SovetovExpected goals in this matchDynamo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.39

Krylia Sovetov

1.33

Dynamo

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 28 away

1.53

creates per match

1.54

1.24

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Krylia Sovetov

1.53

Dynamo

1.54

allows per match

Krylia Sovetov

1.24

Dynamo

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Krylia Sovetov+0.00on par

Dynamo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krylia Sovetov ↓

Dynamo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Krylia Sovetov or draw

61%

Krylia Sovetov or Dynamo

74%

Draw or Dynamo

64%

Winning margin

Krylia Sovetov wins by 2+

16%

Dynamo wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Krylia Sovetov 1+ goals

74%

Krylia Sovetov 2+ goals

38%

Krylia Sovetov 3+ goals

15%

Dynamo 1+ goals

75%

Dynamo 2+ goals

40%

Dynamo 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Krylia Sovetov (draw refunded)

48%

Dynamo (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krylia Sovetov at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

Dynamo away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.14 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krylia Sovetov attack 1.53 + Dynamo defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.33

Dynamo attack 1.54 + Krylia Sovetov defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Krylia Sovetov scores more

36%

level

26%

Dynamo scores more

39%

Dynamo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

77

I. Akhmetov

Krylia Sovetov · M

8.5

Match Events

9'

D. Fomin↳ E. Maouhoub

24'

Bitello↳ A. Miranchuk

34'

I. Sergeev

46'

I. Akhmetov← V. Ignatenko

59'

I. Akhmetov↳ K. Pechenin

64'

T. Galdames← K. Pechenin

64'

A. Sutormin← N. Rasskazov

68'

N. Marichal← A. Kutitsky

68'

U. Babaev← E. Maouhoub

72'

A. Gaich← A. Rahmanovic

74'

K. Tyukavin← I. Sergeev

78'

J. Marin← I. Oleynikov

82'

Fernando Costanza

88'

T. Galdames↳ I. Akhmetov

89'

V. Okishor← D. Fomin

90'

D. Skopintsev← Rubens

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KryliaDynamo

Overview

49%Possession51%

9Total Shots21

3Corners9

12Fouls12

Shots

9Total Shots21

2On Target6

4Off Target9

3Blocked6

5Inside Box17

4Outside Box4

Passing

49%Possession51%

423Total Passes421

320Accurate Passes321

76%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

4Saves0

Discipline

12Fouls12

1Yellow Cards0

2Offsides4

Match Recap: Krylia Sovetov vs Dynamo

Dynamo beat Krylia Sovetov 3-2 in Premier League on September 26, 2025.

Goals: D. Fomin (9'), Bitello (24'), I. Sergeev (34'), I. Akhmetov (59'), T. Galdames (88').

Dynamo controlled possession (51%) and registered 21 shots to 9.

The match was played at Samara Arena in Samara.

Krylia Sovetov vs Dynamo — Premier League 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Krylia Sovetov vs Dynamo