Krylya Sovetov 2–1 Dinamo Moscow: Result & Stats

Krylya Sovetov

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Dinamo Moscow

A. Zuev 88'

V. Pisarskiy 48'

K. Tyukavin 80'

2/23/2023

Cup · Premier League Path - Quarter-finalsSolidarnost Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Krylya Sovetov39%

×Draw22%

Dinamo Moscow39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Krylya SovetovExpected goals in this matchDinamo Moscow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.75

Krylya Sovetov

1.76

Dinamo Moscow

1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 23 away

1.88

creates per match

1.74

1.76

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Krylya Sovetov

1.88

Dinamo Moscow

1.74

allows per match

Krylya Sovetov

1.76

Dinamo Moscow

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Krylya Sovetov+0.00on par

Dinamo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krylya Sovetov ↓

Dinamo Moscow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Krylya Sovetov or draw

61%

Krylya Sovetov or Dinamo Moscow

78%

Draw or Dinamo Moscow

61%

Winning margin

Krylya Sovetov wins by 2+

20%

Dinamo Moscow wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Krylya Sovetov 1+ goals

83%

Krylya Sovetov 2+ goals

52%

Krylya Sovetov 3+ goals

26%

Dinamo Moscow 1+ goals

83%

Dinamo Moscow 2+ goals

52%

Dinamo Moscow 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Krylya Sovetov (draw refunded)

50%

Dinamo Moscow (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krylya Sovetov at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

Dinamo Moscow away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.65 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krylya Sovetov attack 1.88 + Dinamo Moscow defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.76

Dinamo Moscow attack 1.74 + Krylya Sovetov defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Krylya Sovetov scores more

39%

level

22%

Dinamo Moscow scores more

39%

Krylya Sovetov at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Krylya Sovetov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'

V. Pisarskiy↳ A. Rahmanović

60'

D. Makarov← V. Grulev

60'

K. Tyukavin← F. Smolov

70'

M. Vityugov← A. Rahmanović

71'

A. Ćirković← B. Garré

73'

Y. Gladyshev← N. Moumi Ngamaleu

73'

L. Gagnidze← A. Zakharyan

77'

V. Shitov← V. Pisarskiy

78'

N. Rasskazov← Y. Gorshkov

80'

K. Tyukavin↳ Y. Gladyshev

85'

A. Zuev← R. Ezhov

88'

A. Zuev↳ N. Rasskazov

Possession

Shots

Statistics

KrylyaDinamo

Overview

51%Possession49%

11Total Shots12

4Corners4

4Fouls14

Shots

11Total Shots12

6On Target6

4Off Target3

1Blocked3

Passing

51%Possession49%

Goalkeeping

5Saves6

Discipline

4Fouls14

3Offsides2