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Krylya Sovetov vs Dinamo Bryansk — First League 2018

Krylya Sovetov
Krylya Sovetov
FT
7 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Dinamo Bryansk
Dinamo Bryansk
9/23/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 11Samara Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Krylya Sovetov80%
×Draw14%
Dinamo Bryansk5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krylya Sovetov
2.35
Dinamo Bryansk
0.44

Krylya Sovetov creates 434% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 21 away

creates per match

Krylya Sovetov
3.00
Dinamo Bryansk
0.48

allows per match

Krylya Sovetov
0.41
Dinamo Bryansk
1.71

finishing

Krylya Sovetov+0.00on par
Dinamo Bryansk+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krylya Sovetov ↓

Dinamo Bryansk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–16%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (17%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Krylya Sovetov or draw
95%
Krylya Sovetov or Dinamo Bryansk
86%
Draw or Dinamo Bryansk
20%

Winning margin

Krylya Sovetov wins by 2+
57%
Dinamo Bryansk wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Krylya Sovetov 1+ goals
90%
Krylya Sovetov 2+ goals
68%
Krylya Sovetov 3+ goals
41%
Dinamo Bryansk 1+ goals
36%
Dinamo Bryansk 2+ goals
7%
Dinamo Bryansk 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Krylya Sovetov (draw refunded)
94%
Dinamo Bryansk (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krylya Sovetov at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.41 · 22 matches

Dinamo Bryansk away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.71 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krylya Sovetov attack 3.00 + Dinamo Bryansk defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.35

Dinamo Bryansk attack 0.48 + Krylya Sovetov defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Krylya Sovetov scores more
80%
level
14%
Dinamo Bryansk scores more
5%

Krylya Sovetov at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Krylya Sovetov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Krylya Sovetov 7–0 Dinamo Bryansk

Krylya Sovetov beat Dinamo Bryansk 7-0 in First League on September 23, 2020.

The match was played at Samara Arena in Samara.