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Dinamo Bryansk vs Krylya Sovetov — First League 2018

Dinamo Bryansk
Dinamo Bryansk
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Krylya Sovetov
Krylya Sovetov
3/20/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 31Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Dinamo Bryansk21%
×Draw27%
Krylya Sovetov52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Bryansk
0.78
Krylya Sovetov
1.42

Krylya Sovetov creates 82% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 22 away

creates per match

Dinamo Bryansk
0.71
Krylya Sovetov
1.55

allows per match

Dinamo Bryansk
1.29
Krylya Sovetov
0.86

finishing

Dinamo Bryansk+0.00on par
Krylya Sovetov+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Bryansk ↓

Krylya Sovetov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–116%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Dinamo Bryansk or draw
48%
Dinamo Bryansk or Krylya Sovetov
73%
Draw or Krylya Sovetov
79%

Winning margin

Dinamo Bryansk wins by 2+
6%
Krylya Sovetov wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Dinamo Bryansk 1+ goals
54%
Dinamo Bryansk 2+ goals
18%
Dinamo Bryansk 3+ goals
4%
Krylya Sovetov 1+ goals
76%
Krylya Sovetov 2+ goals
41%
Krylya Sovetov 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Bryansk (draw refunded)
28%
Krylya Sovetov (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Bryansk at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.29 · 21 matches

Krylya Sovetov away — creates 1.55, concedes 0.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Bryansk attack 0.71 + Krylya Sovetov defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.78

Krylya Sovetov attack 1.55 + Dinamo Bryansk defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Dinamo Bryansk scores more
21%
level
27%
Krylya Sovetov scores more
52%

Krylya Sovetov at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Krylya Sovetov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Dinamo Bryansk 0–2 Krylya Sovetov

Krylya Sovetov beat Dinamo Bryansk 2-0 in First League on March 20, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Dinamo in Bryansk.