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Krylya Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow — Cup 2019

Krylya Sovetov
Krylya Sovetov
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
CSKA Moscow
CSKA Moscow
3/15/2023CupCup · Premier League Path - Semi-finalsSolidarnost Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Krylya Sovetov32%
×Draw24%
CSKA Moscow44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krylya Sovetov
1.40
CSKA Moscow
1.67

CSKA Moscow creates 19% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 26 away

creates per match

Krylya Sovetov
1.88
CSKA Moscow
1.58

allows per match

Krylya Sovetov
1.76
CSKA Moscow
0.92

finishing

Krylya Sovetov+0.00on par
CSKA Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krylya Sovetov ↓

CSKA Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Krylya Sovetov or draw
56%
Krylya Sovetov or CSKA Moscow
76%
Draw or CSKA Moscow
68%

Winning margin

Krylya Sovetov wins by 2+
15%
CSKA Moscow wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Krylya Sovetov 1+ goals
75%
Krylya Sovetov 2+ goals
41%
Krylya Sovetov 3+ goals
17%
CSKA Moscow 1+ goals
81%
CSKA Moscow 2+ goals
50%
CSKA Moscow 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Krylya Sovetov (draw refunded)
42%
CSKA Moscow (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krylya Sovetov at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

CSKA Moscow away — creates 1.58, concedes 0.92 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krylya Sovetov attack 1.88 + CSKA Moscow defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.40

CSKA Moscow attack 1.58 + Krylya Sovetov defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Krylya Sovetov scores more
32%
level
24%
CSKA Moscow scores more
44%

CSKA Moscow at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "CSKA Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Krylya Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow

Krylya Sovetov and CSKA Moscow drew 2-2 in Cup on March 15, 2023.

The match was played at Solidarnost Arena in Samara.