Krylia Sovetov 1–1 CSKA Moscow: Result & Stats

Krylia Sovetov

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

CSKA Moscow

I. Oleynikov 65'

S. Bozhin 75' (OG)

4/18/2026

Premier League · Round 25Samara Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Krylia Sovetov35%

×Draw27%

CSKA Moscow38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Krylia SovetovExpected goals in this matchCSKA Moscow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.25

Krylia Sovetov

1.19

CSKA Moscow

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 104 home / 120 away

1.31

creates per match

1.34

1.17

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Krylia Sovetov

1.31

CSKA Moscow

1.34

allows per match

Krylia Sovetov

1.17

CSKA Moscow

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Krylia Sovetov+0.00on par

CSKA Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krylia Sovetov ↓

CSKA Moscow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Krylia Sovetov or draw

62%

Krylia Sovetov or CSKA Moscow

73%

Draw or CSKA Moscow

65%

Winning margin

Krylia Sovetov wins by 2+

15%

CSKA Moscow wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Krylia Sovetov 1+ goals

70%

Krylia Sovetov 2+ goals

33%

Krylia Sovetov 3+ goals

12%

CSKA Moscow 1+ goals

71%

CSKA Moscow 2+ goals

36%

CSKA Moscow 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Krylia Sovetov (draw refunded)

48%

CSKA Moscow (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krylia Sovetov at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.17 · 104 matches

CSKA Moscow away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.06 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krylia Sovetov attack 1.31 + CSKA Moscow defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.19

CSKA Moscow attack 1.34 + Krylia Sovetov defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Krylia Sovetov scores more

35%

level

27%

CSKA Moscow scores more

38%

CSKA Moscow at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "CSKA Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

I. Oleynikov

Krylia Sovetov · M

7.9

Match Events

18'

Henrique CarmoGoal cancelled

19'

Sergey Bozhin

40'

Danila Kozlov

43'

Matheus Alves← K. Glebov

44'

Moises← D. Kozlov

57'

Matvey Kislyak

62'

M. Popovic← Henrique Carmo

62'

T. Musaev← L. Gondou

65'

Fernando Costanza

65'

I. Oleynikov↳ M. Vityugov

66'

Dmitri Barinov

70'

Nikita Chernov

75'

S. BozhinOwn goal

76'

J. Marin← I. Akhmetov

76'

M. Banjac← I. Oleynikov

76'

V. Ignatenko← A. Rahmanovic

84'

K. Stolbov← M. Vityugov

90+1'

Mihajlo Banjac

90+3'

A. Shumansky← S. Babkin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KryliaCSKA

Overview

42%Possession58%

13Total Shots6

11Corners4

14Fouls12

Shots

13Total Shots6

2On Target0

6Off Target3

5Blocked3

7Inside Box2

6Outside Box4

Passing

42%Possession58%

308Total Passes441

238Accurate Passes378

77%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls12

4Yellow Cards3

0Offsides1