CSKA Moscow 1–1 Krylia Sovetov: Result & Stats

CSKA Moscow

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Krylia Sovetov

S. Koïta 69'

I. Sergeev 74' (pen)

4/20/2025

Premier League · Round 25VEB Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

CSKA Moscow58%

×Draw23%

Krylia Sovetov19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CSKA MoscowExpected goals in this matchKrylia Sovetov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

0.96

CSKA Moscow

1.84

Krylia Sovetov

0.96

CSKA Moscow creates 92% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 105 away

1.87

creates per match

1.02

0.90

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

CSKA Moscow

1.87

Krylia Sovetov

1.02

allows per match

CSKA Moscow

0.90

Krylia Sovetov

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CSKA Moscow+0.00on par

Krylia Sovetov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Moscow ↓

Krylia Sovetov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

CSKA Moscow or draw

81%

CSKA Moscow or Krylia Sovetov

77%

Draw or Krylia Sovetov

42%

Winning margin

CSKA Moscow wins by 2+

33%

Krylia Sovetov wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

CSKA Moscow 1+ goals

84%

CSKA Moscow 2+ goals

55%

CSKA Moscow 3+ goals

28%

Krylia Sovetov 1+ goals

62%

Krylia Sovetov 2+ goals

25%

Krylia Sovetov 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

CSKA Moscow (draw refunded)

75%

Krylia Sovetov (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Moscow at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.90 · 120 matches

Krylia Sovetov away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.81 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Moscow attack 1.87 + Krylia Sovetov defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.84

Krylia Sovetov attack 1.02 + CSKA Moscow defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

CSKA Moscow scores more

58%

level

23%

Krylia Sovetov scores more

19%

CSKA Moscow at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "CSKA Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

Willyan Rocha

CSKA Moscow · D

7.7

Match Events

8'

46'

53'

57'

61'

A. Fayzullaev← R. Zhemaletdinov

68'

S. Guarirapa← T. Musaev

68'

S. Koïta← K. Bistrović

69'

L. Gagnidze← S. Babkin

69'

V. Shitov← N. Rasskazov

69'

S. Koïta↳ Willyan Rocha

72'

Vladislav ShitovPenalty confirmed

74'

I. SergeevPenalty

76'

A. Shumanskiy← Alerrandro

79'

Dominik Oroz

88'

I. Dmitriev← A. Zinkovskiy

88'

D. Tsypchenko← I. Oleynikov

90+3'

Artem Shumansky

90+7'

Sergey Pesyakov

90+2'

A. Rahmanović← I. Sergeev

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CSKAKrylia

Overview

59%Possession41%

18Total Shots9

5Corners4

7Fouls15

Shots

18Total Shots9

6On Target3

11Off Target3

1Blocked3

13Inside Box7

5Outside Box2

Passing

59%Possession41%

598Total Passes422

523Accurate Passes361

87%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

7Fouls15

3Yellow Cards3

0Offsides1