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Krylya Sovetov vs Alaniya II — First League 2018

Krylya Sovetov
Krylya Sovetov
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Alaniya II
Alaniya II
10/4/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 13Samara Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Krylya Sovetov62%
×Draw21%
Alaniya II17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krylya Sovetov
1.95
Alaniya II
0.89

Krylya Sovetov creates 119% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 21 away

creates per match

Krylya Sovetov
3.00
Alaniya II
1.38

allows per match

Krylya Sovetov
0.41
Alaniya II
0.90

finishing

Krylya Sovetov+0.00on par
Alaniya II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krylya Sovetov ↓

Alaniya II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Krylya Sovetov or draw
83%
Krylya Sovetov or Alaniya II
79%
Draw or Alaniya II
38%

Winning margin

Krylya Sovetov wins by 2+
37%
Alaniya II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Krylya Sovetov 1+ goals
86%
Krylya Sovetov 2+ goals
58%
Krylya Sovetov 3+ goals
31%
Alaniya II 1+ goals
59%
Alaniya II 2+ goals
22%
Alaniya II 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Krylya Sovetov (draw refunded)
79%
Alaniya II (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krylya Sovetov at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.41 · 22 matches

Alaniya II away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.90 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krylya Sovetov attack 3.00 + Alaniya II defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.95

Alaniya II attack 1.38 + Krylya Sovetov defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Krylya Sovetov scores more
62%
level
21%
Alaniya II scores more
17%

Krylya Sovetov at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Krylya Sovetov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Krylya Sovetov vs Alaniya II

Krylya Sovetov beat Alaniya II 2-0 in First League on October 4, 2020.

The match was played at Samara Arena in Samara.