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Alaniya II vs Krylya Sovetov — First League 2018

Alaniya II
Alaniya II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Krylya Sovetov
Krylya Sovetov
3/28/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 33Respublikanskiy stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Alaniya II43%
×Draw25%
Krylya Sovetov32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alaniya II
1.50
Krylya Sovetov
1.27

Alaniya II creates 18% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 22 away

creates per match

Alaniya II
2.14
Krylya Sovetov
1.55

allows per match

Alaniya II
1.00
Krylya Sovetov
0.86

finishing

Alaniya II+0.00on par
Krylya Sovetov+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alaniya II ↓

Krylya Sovetov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Alaniya II or draw
68%
Alaniya II or Krylya Sovetov
75%
Draw or Krylya Sovetov
57%

Winning margin

Alaniya II wins by 2+
21%
Krylya Sovetov wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Alaniya II 1+ goals
78%
Alaniya II 2+ goals
44%
Alaniya II 3+ goals
19%
Krylya Sovetov 1+ goals
72%
Krylya Sovetov 2+ goals
36%
Krylya Sovetov 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Alaniya II (draw refunded)
57%
Krylya Sovetov (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alaniya II at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.00 · 21 matches

Krylya Sovetov away — creates 1.55, concedes 0.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alaniya II attack 2.14 + Krylya Sovetov defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.50

Krylya Sovetov attack 1.55 + Alaniya II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Alaniya II scores more
43%
level
25%
Krylya Sovetov scores more
32%

Alaniya II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Alaniya II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Alaniya II 0–1 Krylya Sovetov

Krylya Sovetov beat Alaniya II 1-0 in First League on March 28, 2021.

The match was played at Respublikanskiy stadion Spartak in Vladikavkaz.